Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 43.590165 51.544685 60.320399 70.689998 82.576218 95.742159 111.395431
2024-10-06 32.589657 43.283950 56.269575 73.062975 94.055445 119.269049 151.664425
2024-10-13 24.744335 36.062453 50.883599 71.428281 98.837422 133.775371 181.244612
2024-10-20 22.204414 34.814034 52.324805 77.918092 113.770205 161.519250 229.083682
2024-10-27 17.290654 29.206789 46.763808 73.809692 113.547473 168.757312 249.960422
2024-11-03 15.280052 27.469838 46.332065 76.661599 122.967321 189.501316 290.384109
2024-11-10 13.908920 26.459289 46.754341 80.654525 134.185274 213.380270 336.651090
2024-11-17 12.623558 25.346038 46.795786 83.924937 144.413090 236.332963 382.869955
2024-11-24 11.043568 23.434404 45.229215 84.331145 150.041526 252.572462 419.893147
2024-12-01 9.294034 20.899372 42.231613 81.938428 150.806110 261.167506 445.534555
2024-12-08 8.204055 19.443420 40.936368 82.271933 155.984434 276.890930 483.017201
2024-12-15 7.367200 18.352983 40.158089 83.392121 162.495826 295.045735 525.246250
2024-12-22 5.862539 15.692701 36.268747 78.858309 159.628040 299.031432 547.380593
2024-12-29 5.232631 14.878577 35.980951 81.230074 169.581214 325.745569 609.681320
2025-01-05 4.348606 13.251584 33.729593 79.413600 171.546540 338.722359 649.528315
2025-01-12 4.254266 13.579417 35.753387 86.523535 191.091846 384.073609 748.029803
2025-01-19 3.398135 11.685830 32.462929 82.021628 187.502416 387.344707 772.642931
2025-01-26 3.120551 11.325840 32.689948 85.146786 199.398046 419.849288 851.421034
2025-02-02 2.935251 11.192482 33.443258 89.520025 214.194910 458.695601 943.853819
2025-02-09 2.725849 10.933854 33.838304 93.100033 227.599929 495.668689 1034.764578
2025-02-16 2.403600 10.226261 32.952216 93.544579 234.316642 520.048990 1103.371177
2025-02-23 2.010596 9.159924 30.912890 90.925669 234.075191 530.630525 1146.281778
2025-03-02 1.774806 8.579245 30.119370 91.290754 240.475107 554.855758 1216.677395